Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models
We examine the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of tests for equal forecast accuracy and encompassing applied to 1-step ahead forecasts from nested parametric models. We first derive the asymptotic distributions of two standard tests and one new test of encompassing. Tables of asymptotically valid critical values are provided. Monte Carlo methods are then used to evaluate the size and po...
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This paper examines the asymptotic and nite-sample properties of tests of equal forecast accuracy when the models being compared are overlapping in the sense of Vuong (1989). Two models are overlapping when the true model contains just a subset of variables common to the larger sets of variables included in the competing forecasting models. We consider an out-of-sample version of the two-step ...
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We consider tests of forecast encompassing for probability forecasts, for both quadratic and logarithmic scoring rules. We propose test statistics for the null of forecast encompassing, present the limiting distributions of the test statistics, and investigate the impact of estimating the forecasting models parameters on these distributions. The small-sample performance is investigated, in ter...
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This paper develops bootstrap methods for testing whether, in a finite sample, competing out-of-sample forecasts from nested models are equally accurate. Most prior work on forecast tests for nested models has focused on a null hypothesis of equal accuracy in population — basically, whether coefficients on the extra variables in the larger, nesting model are zero. We instead use an asymptotic a...
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We propose an encompassing test for non-nested linear quantile regression models and show that it has an asymptotic χ2 distribution. It is also shown that the proposed test is a regression rank score test in a comprehensive model under conditional homogeneity. Our simulation results indicate that the proposed test performs very well in finite samples. JEL classification: C12, C52
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal
سال: 1999
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.191028